BOSSERT'S CRIME ANALYSIS: WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE? I have been researching the points as Mr. Bossert elaborated in his blog, and I obtained the same data from Lt. Cambra of the SCV Sheriff’s Department. Here is the data as reported by Mr. Bossert in his blog, and it includes the data that Bossert omitted in his original blog, the “Other Unincorporated Areas” column: Mr. Bossert then provides us with his stunning analysis: “Just doing a cursory scan of the numbers and you can see that in every category, crime is significantly higher in the City of Santa Clarita. For instance, vandalism in the City for the 10 month period was reported at 1212 compared to the West Ranch/Old Road area which had 81.” Du’oh, Mr. Bossert! You are comparing a high-end residential community with an estimated population of 60,000 to a city with a diverse range of residential & commercial areas and a population of 170,000. Of course the numbers for the city would be higher because the population is greater. Any elementary statistics student will tell you that raw numbers do not mean anything unless the sample sizes are equal, both in number and in composition. Besides the population difference, there are other significant differences between the city and the west ranch communities that make these numbers truly meaningless. The city has more extensive industrial and commercial areas. There are thousands of more jobs, businesses and entertainment venues in the City than in the West Ranch communities, which means the city has many more visitors and commuters than the West Ranch communities on any given day. The city also has a higher range of diversity of ethnicities, income levels and housing, including older, lower income areas and apartment buildings. The various categories of crimes and the frequency at which they occur also depends a lot upon whether the area being studied is made up of residential or commercial entities. Robbery involves the use of weapon, and generally is a crime against a commercial enterprise. Burglary is defined as unlawful entry to commit theft or a felony, does not involve the use of a weapon, and is usually more prevalent in residential neighborhoods. So Mr. Bossert isn’t comparing apples to apples; he is comparing three apples to a cartload of oranges, tangerines, pineapples and a few Kiwi. Even the FBI, which releases annual crime statistics, issues this warning: "Until data users examine all the variables that affect crime in a town, city, county, state, region, or college or university, they can make no meaningful comparisons." CRIME ON THE RISE IN WEST RANCH? ALERT THE TOWN COUNCIL! Perhaps a more relevant comparison would be to look at the statistics as they apply over a number of years to see if crime is trending upward or downward. The SCV Sheriff’s Department has a website with access to crime statistics, including a clickable map which links to a table of data which will give display the crime statistics for that particular neighborhood or Reporting District. Here is a synopsis of the data for the West Ranch area reporting districts: So these numbers tell a very different story – that crime is increasing in the West Ranch areas in many of these same categories which Bossert identified! Now, while I thoroughly enjoy pointing out to Mr. Bossert that aggravated assaults are up 1000% in his neighborhood, I also have to admit, on the other hand, that even statistics like this can easily be skewed by several factors. Several of these assaults might have been committed by one person, maybe even on the same night. Even weather can be a factor – a few years ago, when the rains were very heavy, the property crime rate dipped but domestic abuse cases rose. So the simple fact of the matter is that interpretations of crime statistics involve much more complex analysis then the simplistic “less-than/greater-than” version put forth by Mr. Bossert. SO WHAT DO THE EXPERT'S SAY? So what exactly do the experts have to say about this? The Morgan Quinto Press compiled 2005 FBI crime statistics and Santa Clarita ranked 34th out of 371 cities surveyed, outranking Newport Beach, Santa Barbara, and many other Southern California cities. The City of Santa Clarita’s crime rates are significantly below the national average, and a simple Google search will show that the city has consistently ranked high on various lists of safest cities for many years. LAW ENFORCEMENT SERVICES: CITY & THE COUNTY The City contracts for its law enforcement services, and the city provides significantly more police patrols than does the unincorporated county. More patrols provide more deterrent for crime. The city has 17 patrols during the day, 16 during the evening, and 8 for late night patrol to patrol the 51 square miles and a population of 169,642. The County provides 5 patrols for the daytime, 5 patrols for the evening, and 2 for late night, to patrol an area of 596 square miles and a population of 82,485. I have verified these differences with Lt. Dunkle of the SCV Sheriff’s Department. This also provides an interesting comparison: This table shows that although the vast majority of the population in the unincorporated areas surrounding our city live in the West Ranch communities, burglary, larceny theft, grand theft auto and vandalism are significantly higher in the “Other Unincorporated Areas”. This could be an indicator that more sheriff patrol resources are being diverted to these other areas in the unincorporated area where crime is higher and they are needed more. Sheriff patrols which are busy in other, distant communities are not available for the neighborhood patrols that are an effective crime deterrent. Mr. Bossert states in this morning’s blog regarding the letter mailed to Sunset Pointe residents: The letter states that the “…Sheriff in the un-incorporated County do not enforce traffic???” That is an incomplete statement since the un-incorporated West Ranch communities have Sheriff protection for everything but traffic which is handled by the California Highway Patrol (CHP). Actually, Mr. Bossert, the statement is correct. The Sheriff in the unincorporated County areas do NOT enforce traffic because traffic enforcement is the CHP’s jurisdiction. The CHP is mainly focused on patrolling the freeways, so typically there is only one CHP officer patrolling all the county roads in the Newhall district, which includes not only the West Ranch & Castaic, but Tesoro, San Francisquito Canyon, Bouquet Canyon, Plum Canyon, and Fair Oaks Ranch. Only one! In contrast, about 40 percent of the city’s sheriff patrols are providing traffic enforcement within the city limits, which provides more effective enforcement of traffic regulations and ensures that patrol units are dispersed through out the city, providing a visible deterrent to crime as well as being available for quick response to emergencies. Perhaps the most entertaining aspect of his original crime statistics blog comes at the end. Mr, Bossert writes:
… one has to ask the question: would our law enforcement protection actually decrease if the West Ranch communities decide to annex? This is a valid question to ask since the West Ranch communities now benefit from protection by the Los Angeles County Sheriff Deputies, the California Highway Patrol, and the Los Angeles Parks Police. If an annexation were to take place, the west side communities would only have the benefit of the Sheriff’s Department. That may or may not equal what the West Ranch area already has.”So let’s talk some reality here. The CHP only responds to traffic issues, and the Parks Police will only respond to incidents in county parks. Traffic enforcement is usually just one CHP who is patrolling all of the county roads in all the unincorporated areas surrounding us. There are fewer sheriffs patrolling a significantly larger, non-contiguous area. An annexation would undoubtedly bring more police patrols and traffic enforcement resources to the residents of the West Ranch communities, and how Mr. Bossert can paint a scenario to the contrary is completely ludicrous! SO WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN? Raw crime statistics do not always tell the true tale, and Mr. Bossert is correct in saying that anyone can take these numbers and skew them anyway they want. However, Mr. Bossert’s oversimplified analysis is truly meaningless, only adding more misinformation and propaganda to the annexation debate as he continues to promote his apparent anti-annexation, anti-City, pro-County agenda to the residents of the West Ranch communities. The Real Story on Crime in the Santa Clarita Valley
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