Incumbents on Parade!!

By Timothy Myers SR. — Tim Myers

Not a day goes by when someone (or several people) will write a letter to the editor or blog comment upset with the actions of local elected officials and reminding everyone “to remember the outrage” at the next election and not vote for the incumbents. Well, it appears that it will be rather easy to remember incumbents AND only incumbents since as of right now only incumbents have indicated they will run in the elections relating to the Newhall School Board, Hart District (both November) and Santa Clarita City Council (next April).

A call goes out to SCVTalkers. Can anyone even speculate on some serious (yet deranged and delusional) candidate that will take on the hopeless task of unseating an incumbent? Will some activist not even attempt to make it look like democracy exists in the SCV? Inquiring minds want to know.

Comments (23)

LarMccJuly 11, 2011 at 4:12 pm

What about Petz? Thought he was going to run. He got the quotes removed after all, I admire him for that.

Coastal SageJuly 11, 2011 at 4:52 pm

It’s not a hopeless task. The idiots on the Council just voted to push for the construction of 3000 very low income and low income apartments throughout Santa Clarita, subsidized by the taxpayers dime. The very low income and low income housing units are to be scattered throughout Santa Clarita (except where Newhall Land owns real estate) and their specific locations are identified. That, to me, seems like creating “open season” for political activists on the right in SCV with a “save our town” mentality and Tea Party sentiments to run as candidates against Kellar and Ender. The potential for vicious hit mailers against Kellar and Ender sent by “Super PACs” is tremendous.

SammyBJuly 11, 2011 at 5:35 pm

I have been lurking here for quite some time, and Coastal Sage, you truly are a miserable shrew. You have however, really outdone yourself with this hate-mongering post. You try to incite fear and resentment by pulling out the “low income housing is coming to your neighborhood” card. Was the race card too much for you, or did you just not think of it?

Mr PerezJuly 12, 2011 at 3:35 pm

Typically Coastal pulls the Cock Roach Card on me….

IHeartSCVJuly 11, 2011 at 4:52 pm

Well Tim, when you phrase it as which-deranged-and-deluded-idiot-is-planning-to-be-the-next-big-failure-in-SCV-politics-?, it’s just not the way I imagine most people want to announce their candidacy. That said, I hate that you’re right about the odds of a newcomer defeating an incumbent. You must, however, admit the small but non-zero chance that Ender or Kellar could drop out of the race. One of them might discover their true calling as a host on HSN, for example.

yourwebguruJuly 11, 2011 at 5:21 pm

I’ve lived in the SCV for 18 years, but can’t recall if an incumbent was ever defeated, or if council members are elected only to empty seats. I know Marsha McLean ran 3 times before getting elected.

Timothy Myers SR.July 12, 2011 at 11:44 am

YWG: Twice. Founding councilmember Dean Koontz in 1990 and Jill Klajic (who ironically unseated Koontz) in 1994. The current five members only ascended to the council when incumbents did not seek reelection. (Ferry, McLean and Weste had to run more than once.)

JeffJuly 12, 2011 at 4:31 am

Tell me again why it’s unlikely that David Gauny will run? I would think a slate card of Gauny/Kellar could be quite powerful. We’re all assuming Laurie Ender has the same base of support in North Bridge, but her link to that community was primarily the schools and PTA. It’s been 4 years….folks might have moved on or changed schools.

Timothy Myers SR.July 12, 2011 at 11:35 am

1. Word on the street is that Gauny will not run because in an at large election every candidate is running against every other candidate and he doesn’t want to run against Bob, who is his boss; 2. On Ender’s Northbridge/Northbridge Pointe/Northpark base: Two words: Real Estate Bust. No one has moved.

NFICJuly 12, 2011 at 6:00 am

I’d love to see a Gauny\Kellar slate and think it could do well. But you never know who might come out of the woodwork. I would think that Frank Ferry would like to find someone else he could control to run so that he could get Kellar removed.

MikeJuly 12, 2011 at 8:29 am

If Gauny made all the right moves off the blocks, it could have been his vs. Frank. However, Ender/Kellar are such a lock next year.

PetzJuly 12, 2011 at 6:16 am

Alan Ferdman could garner a lot of support from the conservative crowd.

Timothy Myers SR.July 12, 2011 at 11:33 am

And those 900 votes would take him to a stunning fifth place finish.

ToddJuly 12, 2011 at 7:54 am

By and large, it is my experience that po-dunk towns such as ours (we, the desert people) rely not necessarily on political connections, but more on $$$. So, if say Lori and her SEIU bank account wanted to run (tongue-in-cheek Lori, chillax ), I would say she’d easily be elected. The problem is, the incumbency is so entrenched, that they automatically get all the money and all of the support. Local municipal elections are bought, plain and simple. Those with the most money in their treasuries win. Get a non-incumbent with an unlimited bankroll, and you’ll see a sitting Councilmember unseated. (The Council did vote to uncap the contributions, right?)

Lori RivasJuly 12, 2011 at 7:59 am

I am chillaxin’. I thought it was funny! Now, where did I put my ATM card for that SEIU bank account?

MikeJuly 12, 2011 at 8:27 am

Todd, I’ve worked closely with a few campaigns, some established, some insurgent. In this town, a moderately well-known incumbent will usually trounce even the most motivated challengers. I’ve seen campaigns where the incumbent sits on their hands and hardly spends a dime, destroy well-funded, full-time candidate challengers. Of course money matters, but I’d take an incumbent spending half as much as their challenger any day of the week. It’s heartbreaking, really, but it’s true. The reflexive vote that goes for the name people recognize comprises a really big part of the electorate. It’s not impossible to unseat an incumbent, but it takes a campaign that’s well-funded and professionally run from the outset – a real plan and some real muscle. But as you mention, both come easy, and naturally to an incumbent.

ToddJuly 12, 2011 at 10:27 am

Name recognition does go a long way, absolutely. (Thomas Jefferson Johnson, anyone?) But unchecked gobs of money can overcome, I’m sure. Or, as NFIC points out below, a thoroughly run grassroots campaign.

MikeJuly 12, 2011 at 11:45 am

Should we ever see a candidate with an unusually large personal fortune or some sort of wider celebrity, the rules could change. I’m not sure “grassroots” is key. TBB had about as good a grassroots campaign as we’ve seen in SCV, and finished horribly. What insurgent campaigns in SCV tend to lack is sophistication. The TBB campaign, for example, bet big on signs and went short on mailers, but the inverse is where the smart money is.

Timothy Myers SR.July 12, 2011 at 11:42 am

And that candidate was Clyde Smyth, retired superintendent of the Hart District, who unseated incumbent Jill Klajic by a whopping 15 votes in 1994. (The joke was on the Smyth supporters (primarily the development community) however, because in 1996 Klajic would come storming back onto the council when founding councilmember Pedersen retired.)

Lori RivasJuly 12, 2011 at 8:38 pm

Hey, Todd, when I was ready to respond to you questions on a previous thread, the responses had been closed. For the record, I am not abstaining from LSSI-run City libraries because I think they will “harm” my children. My initial concerns, last August and up until February of this year, were that the City libraries would severely limit our book availability. The City has since joined the Inland Library Network, which appears to have a collection comparable to County, and, as an unproven system, I cannot say whether or not book availability will or will not be limited. I do think, however, that children’s services have been compromised in a few ways. Not a reason to boycott the libraries, but definitely a reason to stick with County. No, I will not participate in LSSI-run City libraries for reasons related to privacy, integrity of service, and just general principal. As I outlined before, low prices do not convince me to shop at Wal-Mart, and junk food coupons do not lure me to buy crappy food, and, in following, slick libraries do not attract me to use them. I try to support only those institutions which I feel are morally above board, ad this whole library fiasco is exactly the opposite, in my mind. I support any citizen who does use the LSSI-run City libraries, an hope that the libraries provide great service to the community. I am probably too much of an idealist for my own good, but you asked, so thre you go — just some of the crazy thoughts that rattle around in my head.

NFICJuly 12, 2011 at 9:00 am

A friend of mine (non-incumbent) was recently elected to the West Hollywood City Council – he was the top vote getter – over two incumbents. http://www.architectmagazine.com/architects/john-damico.aspx See attached link about him and his “platform”. We either have or will have many of the same sorts of issues. He did well because he 1) Hired a professional campaign advisor; 2) Fundraised like crazy – I think the final tally will show he had more in contributions than the incumbents; and 3) Ran a grassroots campaign It is possible to defeat an incumbent. You just need to be smart about how you approach it.

BrookJuly 12, 2011 at 10:53 am

Two friends of mine ran and unseated long-time incumbants in a Nor Cal town about the size of our city (however they ran in districts so a smaller population base). They both won with about 50% of the vote and it was because they made a point to get out there and meet every single citizen they could. And they are both in their thirties. In my 10+ years in Santa Clarita no candidate has knocked on my door to ask for my vote.

Timothy Myers SR.July 12, 2011 at 11:39 am

Brook: How many absolute votes did they have to get to win? (Not percentages) In the at large system this time around a winning candidate will need 5,800 to 6,000 to come past the post. Assuming that it takes 3 minutes to knock on a door and engage a voter and convince them to vote for you, that’s 290 hours or seven plus weeks of full time work, not even counting the fact that only 1 out of 8 doors one knocks on will have someone home who is a registered voter that might actually vote in a City election.