While some might say a mistake in numbers is an error, those of us in the financial reporting business like to call it a true-up. In any case, yesterday I found out some very interesting information that could indicate something very different occurring in our Santa Clarita City Council election.
Between 2010 and 2012 the City of Santa Clarita got another 1,500 or so registered voters. No big deal. However, what is a big deal is that the permanent vote by mail ballots dropped by the City Clerk increased over 7,000 from approximately 17,000 to 24,000.
Here is where the true up comes in. In a prior post I had stated that vote by mail folk returned their ballots at a rate of about 40%. This was wrong. The return rate, based on a corrected (and lower) denominator, approaches 60%.
My source also informed me that the return rate of vote by mails is keeping pace with the return rate in 2010. If this holds, it means that we could see an additional 4,000 or so vote by mails in the hopper come Election Day.
Now the next, and harder to predict, question is what this means for overall turnout. If these incremental vote by mails cannibalize former poll voters the number of folks casting ballots at Election Day would approach zero. If the poll votes hold firm this indicates a rather incredible 40% increase in turnout (though still amounting to a desultory 20% where statewide the average turnout in local April elections is around 30%). What does this all mean? Time will tell.
4,000 Additional Voters in City Election....Maybe
Between 2010 and 2012 the City of Santa Clarita got another 1,500 or so registered voters. No big deal. However, what is a big deal is that the permanent vote by mail ballots dropped by the City Clerk increased over 7,000 from approximately 17,000 to 24,000.
Here is where the true up comes in. In a prior post I had stated that vote by mail folk returned their ballots at a rate of about 40%. This was wrong. The return rate, based on a corrected (and lower) denominator, approaches 60%.
My source also informed me that the return rate of vote by mails is keeping pace with the return rate in 2010. If this holds, it means that we could see an additional 4,000 or so vote by mails in the hopper come Election Day.
Now the next, and harder to predict, question is what this means for overall turnout. If these incremental vote by mails cannibalize former poll voters the number of folks casting ballots at Election Day would approach zero. If the poll votes hold firm this indicates a rather incredible 40% increase in turnout (though still amounting to a desultory 20% where statewide the average turnout in local April elections is around 30%). What does this all mean? Time will tell.