The June primary election is now just three weeks away, and many of the ballots are already in the hands of the VBM voters who make up a majority of voters in the district. Here are a few charts so you can better know our district.
The 25th Congressional District, in Six Charts
1. SCV has the biggest piece of the pie
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I didn't realize that the Santa Clarita Valley had such a big share of the vote in the 25th District. The Antelope Valley comes in second to the SCV because much of Lancaster is actually in the 23rd district. This breakdown isn't from registration, but the number of voters in 2012. It includes the cities and unincorporated areas in each region. "Mountain Communities" is a catch-all for towns that aren't quite in either valley: Acton, Agua Dulce, Leona Valley, Green Valley and Gorman.
2. The power of quasi-incumbency
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We already know that Tony Strickland has more money to spend in the primary, so I was curious just how many voters are already constituents of Steve Knight. Over two-thirds of voters in the 25th saw Steve Knight's name on the ballot for his State Senate seat in 2012, and about half of those go back even further with Knight. I don't have the exact figures, but Strickland's share of former constituents (2008-2012) so happens to be about the size of the blue area.
3. Red, other and blue
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Since the district was drawn in 2011, Democrats have kept the same share, while Republican have lost three points to No Party Preference and third parties. The largest third party is the far-right American Independent party, because so many would-be NPP voters register AI by accident. I was surprised to see that Libertarians are just 0.7%.
4. Every 4 years, we're purple
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Obama narrowly won the area that is now the 25th in 2008 and narrowly lost in 2012. Not only was he more popular than downticket Democrats in each year, he also skewed the turnout. Off-years are different, so we should expect a more conservative electorate this year. For example, Brown lost this district to Whitman by 13 points in 2010 – though I think he'll win this November if his opponent is Tim Donnelly.
5. Through the eyes of Lee Rogers
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I found this to be really interesting. A big reason why Democrats in D.C. see this race as competitive is that Palmdale and Lancaster are now Democratic cities, even as they continue to elect local Republicans. It takes a while to build political clout and organization, so it will still be a little while before Democrats become the power brokers of the AV. For this reason, Rogers will probably fare much better against Tony Strickland, who's all but unknown up there, than a hometown candidate like Steve Knight.
6. Fundraising, updated
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I updated this chart (first seen here) to include Evan Thomas' totals.