Nick, an SCVTalk reader, has a great read on the issue:
Recently, Field Poll released new results on California’s November ballot measures. One of most attention-grabbing findings was the trending support for Proposition 19- the marijuana legalization prop. Among likely California voters, Field Poll suggests that 49% support the prop while 42% are opposed.
Other pollsters, including SurveyUSA and PPP, agree that supporters of the prop might have something to celebrate this November. Moreover, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight thinks there could be a ‘reverse-Bradley effect’ taking place and that under certain polling conditions, black and Latino voters are less inclined to indicate their support for Prop 19- meaning that certain polls may have actually understated the prop’s support.
It seems, with the election just a little over a month away, it might be time to consider what, if anything, will happen should Prop 19 pass.
The proposition itself does two major things: (1) it allows Californians (21 and older) to possess, use, and cultivate up to an ounce of marijuana (under certain restrictions) and; (2) it allows local governments to authorize the retail sale of marijuana and collect taxes on those sales.
Of course, Prop 215- The Compassionate Use Act of 1996- already establishes similar rights for patients who use medical marijuana in all of California’s 58 counties. Prop 19 is different though. It would ostensibly allow cities and counties to ‘opt-out’ of regulating or taxing marijuana. In other words, little would probably change in Orange County while cannabis retailers might crop up all over Oakland. Whatever local governments might choose to do about retail marijuana, individuals 21 and over would still be able to grow and consume marijuana in their home.
To all this, add a wildcard. The US Department of Justice recently intervened in Arizona after SB 1070, the controversial ‘immigration’ bill, was deemed incongruous with federal law. Enter marijuana. Cannabis is a Schedule I controlled substance and illegal to cultivate, use or possess under federal law. This begs the question: would Prop 19, if passed, be subject to similar federal intervention? Many observers on both sides of the cannabis issue think so.
If Prop 19 does pass and the DOJ does intervene, it’s unclear if any local governments would move forward with allowing local pot retailers while the legal battle plays out. What’s also unclear is whether or not individuals across the state would begin to exercise their new rights to grow marijuana in their homes.
And those are only the major legal issues. Supporters and opponents of the proposition each point to dozens of beneficial or detrimental effects Prop 19 could produce. Some supporters argue passing Prop 19 would improve California’s economy and bankrupt cartels south of the border. Opponents say Prop 19 would lead to greater drug addiction and endanger schoolchildren.
The only thing that we can really be confident about at this point is that if Prop 19 passes in November it will be the beginning and not the end of the discussion.
Jeff’s note: I think the other thing we can be confident about is that if Prop 19 passes, Santa Clarita will definitely not allow local pot retailers. Thanks to Nick for the great analysis.
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