Recently, KHTS and The Signal reported that the California Citizens Redistricting Commission has released its first draft of new boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. While this is just a draft, it’s coming from the commission itself, as opposed to a interest group.
Check out both articles for more information about the process. Here at SCVtalk, we’ve been waiting for these maps with baited breath. For political junkies, seeing new district maps is like getting your hands on the next iPhone. This might be a factory prototype, but you see where it’s going. Spoiler alert: the SCV does not get split.
The new Congressional district*
The current draft of our congressional district would essentially consist of the L.A. County portion of the current 25th CD. Easy enough?
SCV’s stake:
About 30% of this district’s residents will live in Santa Clarita.
This is, and will remain Buck McKeon’s seat for as long as he likes it. But looking forward, I’d expect the deep-pocketed McKeon machine to do its best to line up a successor. That may be our only hope of seing a Claritan in D.C., post-McKeon. The majority of district residents will hail from the AV, giving a significant advantage to AV-based candidates. Since we’ll no longer share Assembly or Senate districts, up-and-coming AV politicians will have little exposure in the SCV, and vice-versa. (R. Rex Parris? We hardly knew ye.)
Red or blue?
Red-er. Currently, the 25th favors Republicans by a two-point margin. This new district would roughly double this spread. While the past decade has seen the SCV and AV move from red to purple, the slow housing market has put the brakes on this trend. Simply put, people who move into new construction tend to reflect the political sensibilities from where they came, which is usually some part of Los Angeles. This seat might be competitive one day, but not until new houses are built.
What this means:
For a few years, the word around town has been that Buck McKeon is eying retirement in 2012, his 20th year in Congress. With his newly-minted Armed Services chairmanship, I’ll assume he’s going to stick around. However, if the Republicans were to lose the House in 2012 (unlikely, but possible), I’d expect him to hang it up quickly.
*UPDATE: upon closer inspection, it appears that the 25 stretches further into the SFV than I thought. (the maps are a little tricky). So take this all with a grain of salt.
The new Assembly district
This is tricky. Smyth’s former seat was most of the SCV, plus some of the SFV, plus some of eastern Ventura County. The new district would sit entirely in LA County, include basically all of the SCV as we know it, plus a larger piece of the NW San Fernando Valley (City of LA).
SCV’s stake:
Based on my crude assumptions (see below), I’m estimating that the SCV would comprise 45% of the district’s population.
In short, we got our wish: once valley, one district. On one hand, Santa Clarita will produce political figures that will be more recognizable to its own residents than the West Valley will. We have our own media, our own city council and other local boards. We know and love our own more than they do. On the other hand, SCV-bred politicians will face something they’ve never encountered before: a living, breathing Democratic party machine that has a long history of sending people to Sacramento.
Red or Blue?
Mind you, this is all a hunch, but I made the following assumptions:
- Unincorporated SCV has about 30% as many people and has roughly the same political ID and the City of Santa Clarita. Yes, it leans more Dem, but we’re not splitting hairs.
- The City of L.A. portion of the district will increase by roughly the number of voters that were in the Ventura County portion of the 38th, and will have rougly the same Political ID as the LA City voters already in Smyth’s district.
I’m not backing into a conclusion here, just trying to make sense of it. In fact, I’m writing this sentence before looking at, much less crunching the party ID numbers.
[number crunching time, please hold]
Based on the above assumptions, the new AD district would be 44.1% Republican and 43.2% Democrat. A dead heat. Purple. Very purple.
I should note that it’s hard to tell exactly which populated areas of the SFV are added to this district. If it’s just sagebrush, then I’d add a point to the Republican spread.
What this means:
Republican or Democrat? It’s a toss-up. SCV or SFV? It’s a toss up. Smyth will be forced out of the Assembly in 2012 due to term limits. This will be a wide-open race in an open primary with no heir apparent.
I’m not up on things enough to know who’s hot in the far west 818, but on first glance, this is a district made for Laurie Ender. A centrist woman with a very strong base and organization in the SCV who paid her dues working in the big city, and likely has plenty of friends in the 818. If she has any interest in higher office, this is her best chance.
The new Senate district
Confused yet? Under the new rules, Senate districts will comprise of exactly two Assembly districts. Our SD will consist of our AD, plus another district which looks a lot like the current 41st AD (coastal N LA Co, & S VeCo), but it will lose Oxnard and gain Thousand Oaks.
SCV’s stake:
Are you keeping track? We’ll have a 20-25% stake in the new district. As far as I know, an SCV’er has never served in the State Senate (Or at least it’s been a while. Where’s Leon Worden when you need him?). It’s a larger stake than we had with Runner or Strickland, but not by much.
Red or Blue?
Blue.
I took the assumptions from the Assembly seat (above).
For the second half of the district, I took registration and party ID of the current AD 41 (very blue), and factored in the party ID and population of Thousand Oaks (very red). This gives us a new AD that’s 44 to 31 Dem.
Overall, I’m estimating a Senate District that has a Democratic advantage of 44 to 38.
What this means:
State Senator Fran Pavley (D-23) lives in Agoura Hills and is up for reelection in 2012. She won in 2008 with 67% of the vote. If these maps hold, I’m nearly certain we’ll see Ms. Pavely coast to re-election, and along with that, Cameron Smyth is probably through with Sacramento – at least until 2022, when he turns 50.
The wild card:
Under CA’s new open primary system, the top two finishers from the primary go on to the general election. It’s quite possible that we’ll see a general election with two candidates from the same party facing off in November. There are plenty of long-shot scenarios that could make this all very interesting. I can’t wait.
If you think this analysis is premature, of course it is. But as the picture crystalizes, we’ll be back for another look.
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