We all know California isn't going to play much of a role in next month's Presidential contest, other than hand 55 electoral votes to President Obama, but that doesn't mean we can't have some fun with the race anyway.
And perhaps the best way to do that in a state that's blue and a valley that's deep red is to look at the race from a different perspective: money. That is to say, which candidate -Mitt Romney or Barack Obama- persuades SCVers to open their wallets for more money? Which one compels SCVers to donate with more frequency? And which candidate is getting more money out of our humble valley?
I've scoured the FEC.Gov website, crunched the numbers in Excel and have some answers for you. But first a note about my methods:
Getting data out of the FEC website is simple. On the presidential election contest page, you can search for donor data using four variables: Contributor's Name, Employer, City and Zip Code. Since we live in a place with many zip codes and many "city" names, I chose to search for contributor data from both zip codes and city names, then combine the datasets in Excel. I deleted results from Valencia PA, Newhall Iowa & Saugus Massachusetts and then used Excel Pivot tables to get raw totals, counts, and averages. Finally, I dumped the data into charts to make it easily understandable.
The data represents the entire 2011-2012 Presidential Cycle. So there are donations going back to 2011, and donations as recently as August. No September data is included. I also excluded loser Republicans from back in the primary days. Sorry Ron Paul fans.
You'll see evidence of the City/zip code problem in the graph below. It's funny how people self-report where they live; very few 91355 residents, for instance, think they live in "Santa Clarita," even though that Zip code is within city limits. Saugus Romney contributors, in contrast, under-reported Saugus as their city, while Saugus Obama contributors cited "Saugus" as their city. Odd, isn't it? In any event, you can see how it breaks down in the chart below and it's probably a fascinating discussion on its own.
So, first up, which candidate won the SCV from a money perspective? No contest: Mitt Romney has raised nearly $2 for every $1 Obama raised in our valley:
This is expected from SCVers. We are, by and large, Republicans and support the Republican standard-bearer and his chiseled running mate from Wisconsin. But let's not forget Romney's special connection to the SCV. He has visited Santa Clarita twice, once during the 2008 cycle (at the TPC) and once during the 2012 cycle (at Robinson Ranch). One of his handsome sons has also visited the SCV. And then there's the Mormon thing.
But let's break these numbers down by ZIP code & City ID. Here we will see that Mitt Romney has won the money race in many areas of the Santa Clarita Valley, but not all:
As you can see, Romney dominates most zip codes and "cities" in Santa Clarita. From Saugus, to Newhall to Canyon Country and even Stevenson Ranch, Romney is the clear winner.
But there are some happy spots for liberals, places where liberals might want to plant their flag in the future. Take a look at Zip code 91354, where Valencia self-Iders donated almost as much to Obama as they did to Romney. The 91354 includes most of what we'd identify as new Valencia, stuff built in the last 15 years:
And then there's 91390. This Zip code includes SCV neighborhoods north of Copperhill as well as Agua Dulce and some vast National Forest land up Bouquet and San Francisquito Canyons. Residents there donated an astounding $11,197 to Barack Obama vs just $3,118 to Mitt Romney:
Back in 2008, I had high hopes that Stevenson Ranch would be a liberal mecca for SCVers. That community voted for Obama and against Proposition 8, the anti-gay marriage initiative. But in 2012, it appears SR is just about purple, with $6,044 donated to Obama and $6,374 donated to Romney.
One last note on self-ID donations. What's up with Saugus residents? Look at 91350 under Santa Clarita, then look at 91350 under Saugus.
Obama contributors tended to ID their town as Saugus while Romney voters tended to ID their town as Santa Clarita. It's no contest; Romney earns much more from Saugus residents than Obama does, but what's with the self-ID difference?
Finally, Valencia is as Valencia does. As in 2008, Valencians in the old traditional part of Valencia donated far more to the Republican than they did the Democrat. 91355 is Republican country, let there be no doubt.
But raw donation amounts aren't the whole story. Obama contributors seem to contribute more often than Romney contributors. In fact, there are almost 2/3rds more Obama contributions vs Romney contributions. Our averages are much lower than Romney contributors, but our volume is way higher:
As you can see in the chart above, there are many more Obama contributions than Romney contributions. There have been nearly 1,000 Obama contributions vs around 400 Romney contributions in the SCV.
People donating to Obama, on average, donate much less to the President than they do to Romney, almost $300 less, but they donate more often.
The difference is striking if you look at all the numbers. There are only two contributions to Obama from the SCV for the maximum $2,500 limit. But there are 24 contributions from the SCV for $2,500 to Mitt Romney. There are 21 $1,000 contributions to Romney in the SCV, but only four $1,000 contributions to Obama from the SCV.
It's clear Romney enjoys the support of wealthier SCV residents compared to Obama.
So there you have it. Romney wins the SCV by raw dollars donated. However, Obama nearly won Santa Clarita in 2008 and he still enjoys substantial support here, as evidenced by the amount of people who donate to him and the frequency with which they donate. But I doubt he'll win the SCV in 2012.
Email me if you'd like to get your comments about this report on the site. Or, if you want to run your own analysis, I'm happy to post it. Email me at jeff@scvtalk.com
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Romney v Obama in the SCV : Contributions
And perhaps the best way to do that in a state that's blue and a valley that's deep red is to look at the race from a different perspective: money. That is to say, which candidate -Mitt Romney or Barack Obama- persuades SCVers to open their wallets for more money? Which one compels SCVers to donate with more frequency? And which candidate is getting more money out of our humble valley?
I've scoured the FEC.Gov website, crunched the numbers in Excel and have some answers for you. But first a note about my methods:
Getting data out of the FEC website is simple. On the presidential election contest page, you can search for donor data using four variables: Contributor's Name, Employer, City and Zip Code. Since we live in a place with many zip codes and many "city" names, I chose to search for contributor data from both zip codes and city names, then combine the datasets in Excel. I deleted results from Valencia PA, Newhall Iowa & Saugus Massachusetts and then used Excel Pivot tables to get raw totals, counts, and averages. Finally, I dumped the data into charts to make it easily understandable.
The data represents the entire 2011-2012 Presidential Cycle. So there are donations going back to 2011, and donations as recently as August. No September data is included. I also excluded loser Republicans from back in the primary days. Sorry Ron Paul fans.
You'll see evidence of the City/zip code problem in the graph below. It's funny how people self-report where they live; very few 91355 residents, for instance, think they live in "Santa Clarita," even though that Zip code is within city limits. Saugus Romney contributors, in contrast, under-reported Saugus as their city, while Saugus Obama contributors cited "Saugus" as their city. Odd, isn't it? In any event, you can see how it breaks down in the chart below and it's probably a fascinating discussion on its own.
So, first up, which candidate won the SCV from a money perspective? No contest: Mitt Romney has raised nearly $2 for every $1 Obama raised in our valley:
But let's break these numbers down by ZIP code & City ID. Here we will see that Mitt Romney has won the money race in many areas of the Santa Clarita Valley, but not all:
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| Click to enlarge |
But there are some happy spots for liberals, places where liberals might want to plant their flag in the future. Take a look at Zip code 91354, where Valencia self-Iders donated almost as much to Obama as they did to Romney. The 91354 includes most of what we'd identify as new Valencia, stuff built in the last 15 years:
And then there's 91390. This Zip code includes SCV neighborhoods north of Copperhill as well as Agua Dulce and some vast National Forest land up Bouquet and San Francisquito Canyons. Residents there donated an astounding $11,197 to Barack Obama vs just $3,118 to Mitt Romney:
Back in 2008, I had high hopes that Stevenson Ranch would be a liberal mecca for SCVers. That community voted for Obama and against Proposition 8, the anti-gay marriage initiative. But in 2012, it appears SR is just about purple, with $6,044 donated to Obama and $6,374 donated to Romney.
One last note on self-ID donations. What's up with Saugus residents? Look at 91350 under Santa Clarita, then look at 91350 under Saugus.
Obama contributors tended to ID their town as Saugus while Romney voters tended to ID their town as Santa Clarita. It's no contest; Romney earns much more from Saugus residents than Obama does, but what's with the self-ID difference?
Finally, Valencia is as Valencia does. As in 2008, Valencians in the old traditional part of Valencia donated far more to the Republican than they did the Democrat. 91355 is Republican country, let there be no doubt.
But raw donation amounts aren't the whole story. Obama contributors seem to contribute more often than Romney contributors. In fact, there are almost 2/3rds more Obama contributions vs Romney contributions. Our averages are much lower than Romney contributors, but our volume is way higher:
As you can see in the chart above, there are many more Obama contributions than Romney contributions. There have been nearly 1,000 Obama contributions vs around 400 Romney contributions in the SCV.
People donating to Obama, on average, donate much less to the President than they do to Romney, almost $300 less, but they donate more often.
The difference is striking if you look at all the numbers. There are only two contributions to Obama from the SCV for the maximum $2,500 limit. But there are 24 contributions from the SCV for $2,500 to Mitt Romney. There are 21 $1,000 contributions to Romney in the SCV, but only four $1,000 contributions to Obama from the SCV.
It's clear Romney enjoys the support of wealthier SCV residents compared to Obama.
So there you have it. Romney wins the SCV by raw dollars donated. However, Obama nearly won Santa Clarita in 2008 and he still enjoys substantial support here, as evidenced by the amount of people who donate to him and the frequency with which they donate. But I doubt he'll win the SCV in 2012.
Email me if you'd like to get your comments about this report on the site. Or, if you want to run your own analysis, I'm happy to post it. Email me at jeff@scvtalk.com
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