I've been following local elections for a long time and the one thing that's always been lacking is polling. Sure, you hear rumors of the results of campaigns internal, quasi-scientific polls. And I've received a few calls over the years meant to gauge public support for school bond measures. But what we never see is a real poll, done by a national pollster, made public.
It's a new day for political nerds in the SCV and it brings along some bad news for our Congressman, Buck McKeon, who, in a poll published Friday by Public Policy Polling, is losing to a a generic (unnamed) Democratic opponent and suffering from a 38% approval rating.
Public Policy Polling, based out of North Carolina, is a newer firm that's had an impressive track record lately. It typically works for Democratic candidates and left-leaning organizations. This particular poll was one of twelve released on Friday, commissioned by Moveon.org.
I can't find the margin of error, but identical sample sizes (645) in polls by PPP carried a ±3.8% MoE. Take that and the motivations behind the poll into account, but either way, this can't be good news for Buck McKeon, who had a pretty rough week, but likely great news for McKeon's likely challenger, Lee Rogers, who have already having a much better week.
Just as significant as the results is the fact that this poll happened in the first place. It's a strong indication that people are paying attention to the 25th as a battleground district in 2014. McKeon's poor showing here may also put some wind in the sails of district Republicans who are anxious to see him retire.
I've asked around, and no one can seem to remember when, if ever, an election poll was published for a local race. Polls are expensive and local races are rarely competitive. But this time around, we have a repeat challenger who is raising a lot of money and attracting national attention, facing an unpopular 75 year-old incumbent. The recent redistricting was favorable to Democrats in 2012, leaving Buck McKeon as one of the last big-name Republicans in LA, and with it, a big target on his back.
This was a poll of registered voters, not likely voters, which is considered a more accurate measure – but it's too early to get an accurate sense of who is going to vote 13 months from now, anyway. The poll oversampled Democrats and under sampled Republicans slightly (both within the MoE) but it's unclear if or how the numbers were weighted to reflect that.
Interesting snapshots:
- McKeon's overall job approval is 38%, with 43% disapproving and 20% aren't sure. He only was 57% approval among Republicans and 19% with Democrats.
- To the question "If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote to re-elect Republican Buck McKeon, or would you vote for his Democratic opponent?" McKeon gets 44%, and 46% chose "Democratic opponent."
- When it's mentioned that McKeon supported the government shutdown (a loaded question, of course, but it's meant to test an argument), McKeon loses 51% to 42%
- Buck McKeon is stronger with women that most Republicans. On the voting question, the gender gap is within the margin of error.
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