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While all eyes have been fixed on the very loud and expensive primary campaign that's pitted Republican hopefuls Tony Strickland and Steve Knight against one another in hopes of facing Democrat Lee Rogers in November, a strange thing has been happening within the district: Democrats have been closing in on Republicans rapidly this year.
The five-point spread in party registration that the GOP enjoyed two years ago is now just a one-point spread today. In fact, the Democrats have narrowed the gap by 2.6% since December 31.
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The reason for this appears to be a significant push by Democrats in the 36th Assembly District (Antelope Valley and some parts of northern SCV). The 36th might be the Democrat's most vulnerable seat, and they aren't taking any chances. Already, Dem incumbent Steve Fox has outspent his three Republican challengers, combined (almost twice as much, actually).
I won't betray the headline by making a second chart, but the numbers in the 36th are even more dramatic. Since January 2012, Democrats have turned a 2.5% deficit into a 3.9% advantage. The rest of the 25th is roughly comprised of Scott Wilk's 38th Assembly District, where the GOP advantage has only been trimmed by two points (currently 5.2%).
And because I know you're curious, the City of Santa Clarita has a 6.7% GOP advantage, down from 9% in 2012 (ten years ago, it was 17%).
Of course, it's never quite as simple as D vs. R. Independent voters has skewed conservative in the 25th, although President Obama nearly won the district in 2012. But this is an unexpected and significant shift that will make this November's race (and subsequent races) all the more competitive, especially if the trend continues.
And let's just say Steve Knight wins and he's replaced in the State Senate by a special election. His seat that was +3% GOP when he was elected in 2012? It's now +1% Dem.