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April 14, 2010· scvtalk.com · WordPress (SCVTalk 3.0) · Wayback capture

Updated Numbers Give David Gauny a Better Chance

By Timothy Myers SR. — Tim Myers

New numbers obtained by SCVTalk reveal there are 650 actual ballots left to be counted in the City Council election, of which 74 could require additional work and verification by the County Registrar.  The remainder are valid vote by mails dropped off at polling stations on election day.

This changes the calculus in David Gauny’s  favor because the amount of votes in play is now probably somewhere around 1,800 (a statistically significant percentage of the total votes cast) and David Gauny need only pick up 3.8 votes per hundred cast on Frank Ferry to win the election.  While this is still a statistically significant amount, David Gauny was doing this at the rate of 6 per hundred late last night.

No matter the outcome the David Gauny campaign has already accomplished an incredible thing, which will make it especially heartbreaking for his supporters if this narrow lead holds.

SCVTalk is attempting to find out the City’s timeline for counting and reporting the 576 vote by mails remaining, which should fix the outcome of the election for good and all.

UPDATE:  Representatives of the Clerk’s office have said they will  issue a formal statement later this afternoon on their plans for the remaining ballots.

Comments (12)

  1. JoeApril 14, 2010 at 8:15 am
    Wow. Where did you get the information on the additional ballots? That’s about twice what they were reporting last night. And yes, as an active supporter and volunteer of David’s, this is a little heart breaking. And frustrating.
  2. Timothy MyersApril 14, 2010 at 8:39 am
    The eyeball estimate said 300 but staff made an actual count later and it turned out to be 650.
  3. navigatorApril 14, 2010 at 12:34 pm
    That’s what happens when you only use one eyeball instead of 2!
  4. Always a Petz FanApril 14, 2010 at 9:22 am
    Tim, you are really in your element on a day like this. Please keep us posted. What safeguards are the city and candidates taking to assure a transparent and accurate count?
  5. Timothy MyersApril 14, 2010 at 10:21 am
    Here is an age test. The City is keeping the ballots in an empty mayonaisse jar on Funk & Wagnall’s porch until noon on Monday, and NO ONE, NO ONE knows the results.
  6. cashApril 14, 2010 at 9:52 am
    Timmy, are you trying to make up for your poor forecast. I hope David wins, but I put little weight on your forecasting skill.
  7. Love Santa ClaritaApril 14, 2010 at 2:22 pm
    Tim, I was not a math major and am not an accountant. However, I think you are wrong about the 1800 votes. If there are 650 votes, then Gauny and Ferry can only get a Maximum of 650 votes. If Gauny picks up 6 voters per 100 then he only picks up 36 or so votes. Another way to look is at the percentage they all received votes. Ferry was at 16.51% and Gauny was at 16.33. If Gauny gets a vote on 25% of thest ballots, that is 162 votes. All Ferry would need to get is 100 votes which would be less than 15%. Too many numbers. Please clear up my confusion.
  8. Timothy MyersApril 14, 2010 at 2:48 pm
    There are 650 BALLOTS which means about 1800 VOTES. 2/3′s of these votes will go to other people obviously. In the last part of last nights count David Gauny was reducing the lead between himself and Frank by 6 votes for every 100 AGGREGATE VOTES counted. Disaggregating this he was BEATING Frank 60% to 40% on the margin, which is why the lead closed so quickly. Best estimate is that on the marginal votes (mainly from CC) Gauny was getting 20% to Frank’s 13%. If this held in the last group David would get 130 votes and Frank would get 84 and David would lose by the Klajic/Smyth like ridiculous margin of 23. To win outright there would need to be a 370 basis point shift from the last batch of marginal votes, either David going up or Frank going down. Is it mathematically possible that this will happen? Yes. Is it statistically probable. No. We know that David Gauny was surging in areas where he had large support because of Bob Kellar’s endorsement, and since this last batch of ballots comes from all over the City it is hard to see how he would finish even stronger.
  9. mikeApril 14, 2010 at 3:24 pm
    Tim, do we really yet know where Gauny was stronger? If he really had a strong regional imbalance, don’t you think he would have been closer when VBM ended?
  10. Timothy MyersApril 14, 2010 at 3:46 pm
    We will eventually know but there is a very strong possibility that Gauny was regionally stronger on a poll basis but not on a vote by mail basis which would be extremely curious.
  11. mikeApril 14, 2010 at 2:49 pm
    LSCV, by “pick up” I think he means that Gauny needs to improve his current rate by that many votes per hundred, so he has to do what he’s already done, plus X many more.
  12. cashApril 14, 2010 at 2:27 pm
    A WAG at best.

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