New construction in the West Hills village of Valencia.
The sometimes cringe-inducing “Awesometown” adverts are in full effect, with the morning drive traffic reports sponsored by the now pervasive push by Newhall Land to snatch up stucco boxes before the Federal and State tax credit money is gone. NL is on an ad-blitz because the window for a “double dip” tax credit (their phrase) will close by the end of April (that’s just nine days from now).
So – is it time to buy a new home in Radsville?
I’ve done some analysis on arguably the two most important tell tale buy signs and can say dispassionately that for those with a long term view, it is indeed a good time to buy – specifically in SCV zip codes 91350, 91351, and 91354. Turns out Newhall Land’s three major residential projects are in two of those zip codes, 91350 (RiverVillage) and 91354 (West Creek, West Hills).
Reasons you should buy
1) Incomes are in line with home prices.
Families in the Sweetboro zips can actually afford to buy their homes. This wasn’t true during the bubble years. Additional factors can drive home prices further downward, but those are external and largely unknown (more on this in a bit).
I tabulated information published by DataQuick (the same source that is used by the weekly LA times report) on median home prices for SCV zip codes as of March 2010. I also added household income statistics as of the last commonly available reporting period, 2008.
There is an obvious sensitivity to any number of assumptions on this spreadsheet, but I was generally conservative. The math goes like this: how much home can the median income family afford? And how much would it cost for the median home in that zip? Important caveat: this analysis only shows single family residences (SFR), as there is no easy way to separate median incomes by housing type. By isolating SFR values and comparing with all household incomes the analysis is even more conservative: the mix of condo-dwelling households is material, both on the sales and income datasets.
The income / SFR price balance is limited to three zip codes only. A number of SCV areas remain out of whack, notably Stevenson Ranch, which was largely built out during the go-go days of home finance. Because of the SFR bias in the analysis, areas with a lower median household income should be re-evaluated with a methodology that takes condos into account.
2) It’s cheaper to buy than rent.
A scan of Kickassplace rentals on rent.com, Westside Rentals, and Craigslist yielded newer 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom SFRs between $2,000 and $2,500. A fourth bedroom adds about 10%. Comparing with the median values — on a pure cash basis — buying a property is slightly better than parity compared with renting. The mortgage interest tax deduction seals it, and if you’re not subject to AMT, the property tax deduction also saves a few dollars.
3) Timely enticements
Without any additional financial incentives, the numbers line up quite favorably. NL’s “double dip” line really is gravy, and makes an even more compelling case to listen to the hype:
- By any measure, interest rates are quite low. Since affordability is inextricably tied to rates, this is already baked in to prices. However, with an FHA loan, the locked-in low rate provides assumability in the event rates climb going forward.
- Feds are giving out tax credits of up to $8,000 for new homebuyers, and $6,500 for move-up buyers.
- Arnold is giving out $10,000 in tax credits ($3,333 per year for 3 years) for new home buyers
- The builders are throwing in additional incentives, such as landscaping and interior add-ons
Image not recoveredIMG_1789.JPGNewhall Land lots prepped for construction, which has notably ramped up in recent weeks ahead of the tax credit deadlines.
Reasons you should wait
Newhall Land lots prepped for construction, which has notably ramped up in recent weeks ahead of the tax credit deadlines.
1) Distressed properties remain
This is the biggest unknown facing the housing market. What’s also unknown is how distressed properties will be triaged by lenders cum owners. There are two schools of thought: one, the distressed properties will lead to further steep price pressure on the market or two, some combination of Uncle Sam and the banks will do everything they can to prevent the distressed properties from further major impact. Neither has come to pass.
2) Interest rates will go up, causing prices to go down
Perhaps. Rates have thus far surprised most everyone, including me. The best protection against rate increases is an FHA loan.
3) You have a short (1-5 year) time horizon
Residential real estate isn’t meant to be flipped. ’nuff said.
I’m not a real estate expert, nor am I connected to the industry. I’m someone who sat on the sidelines for a few years with my family, bouncing between rentals and finally took the plunge just over a year ago.
Is this the best time ever to buy a home in Awesometown? No. But it’s a hell of a lot more favorable than just about any period in the last five years. Especially if you have a longer-term horizon… and can’t stand your rental in Crapsburg.

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