Media reports that 25,000 came to view the parade on July 4 in downtown Newhall. As a veteran parade announcer for thirteen years and viewer for two additional years prior I would like to take this opportunity to apply concepts of freakonomics to the claims of 25,000 attendees at the 4th of July parade.
The ENTIRE parade route is 3.4 miles from Hart Park to its terminus at Newhall Park. This translates into total frontage on BOTH sides of the parade route of about 36,000 feet.
I measured my camp chair, the preferred method of parade viewing, and it requires just under 2 feet for full deployment. This means that for 25,000 people to attend people would have to be chair to chair along the ENTIRE parade route (both sides), and two deep over one half of the parade route.
Now let’s take the added fact that parade viewing is fairly limited to 2 miles of the total course with announcer stands. This leaves about 21,000 feet in frontage which would then require folks to be two deep along the ENTIRE parade route and three deep on 25% of the parade route.
Anyone with reasonable vision that attends the parade knows that this type of density only occurs on a small part of the parade route, generally a short block in either direction from Lyons Avenue and Orchard Village. Density opens up along the remainder of the parade route. What has obviously happened is that someone years ago came up with the 25,000 number (it used to be 15,000) and then people just say it again because the attendance appears about the same as last year.
Another item of freakonomics. It would probably take about 6,000 cars to transport that many people to the parade, and where exactly do they park? The COC Valencia campus has about 5,000 parking spaces. Are there really that many cars parked around Newhall parade?
In other words, I’m not buying the 25,000 number as reasonable. A more reasonable estimate is probably 5,000 to 7,000 people; still impressive but lets not get crazy.
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