Last week we took a magnifying glass to some of the working maps that were released to the public by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission. I made some estimates of what we could expect from these districts, in terms of party ID, and I came pretty close, considering what I had to work with. On Friday at the WRB, Scott Wilk posted the actual party ID numbers of these would-be districts. But just hours later, the big bombshell dropped: the release of the first official draft districts.
The big news here is that Newhall and parts of Valencia are roped into a west-SFV district. Meanwhile, all of the SCV is in the same Assembly and Senate district and our Senate district looks to be a Democratic stronghold.
Of course all of this can still change, but we’ll keep examining these districts through each draft until the cement has dried. Luckily, I’ve made a discovery that brings all sorts of hard data to the table, so my numbers will be (mostly) hunch-free this week. My predictions about what it means for whom will be conjecture-heavy.
On its website, Republican political consulting firm Meridan Pacific has posted a detailed breakdown on the party membership and electoral history of each of the districts in this first draft. A great thing about these maps is they identify where some key players live. For example, Sharon Runner and Steve Knight live just inside Buck’s district and Cameron Smyth lives just outside it (curiously, Scott Wilk’s home appears on this map as well).
We’ll use their numbers for the breakdown. For a better view, click on the image and it will take you to their page.
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The proposed congressional district will be very friendly to Buck McKeon right now, and for Republicans in the future. There is about a 9% spread between Republicans and Democrats in SCV, but in Simi Valley, that’s nearly 15%. McKeon loses his far-flung area in San Bernardino County, where many of his Democratic opponents came from. To put this in clearer terms, Buck’s current district actually voted for Obama in 2008 by a one-point margin. This proposed district preferred McCain by a six point margin.
By cutting Lancaster in half and bringing Simi Valley into the mix, the commission has made it less certain that the next Congressman comes from the AV. That may be a while off anyway. Buck may very well choose to serve in Washington into his 80s. Many do.
There has been some discussion on whether Congressman Elton Gallegly, whose home was drawn into this district, will run against McKeon, as much of his current district may become more Democratic. This will be interesting, but I think Elton has a better chance against a Democratic candidate in the VeCo district than he would against McKeon on Buck’s turf. He’d essentially be the incumbent – though you could see Brad Sherman making a play for that seat, too.
As for the rest of Santa Clarita, residents of Newhall and southern Valencia, 30,794 residents, will be the likely constituents of either Howard Berman or Brad Sherman. Not sure where you fall? I’ve made this handy map that I call Bluehall:
[Last-minute update: SCVtalk reader Todd has posted a link to an interactive map from the LA Times that shows these districts down to the block. The map above is based on census tracts. The LA Times map differs slightly.]
The Assembly
Our new Assembly district would be slightly Democratic, while our current seat has a 4-point Republican advantage; but those numbers only tell us so much, since nearly 20% of voters are decline-to-states. Looking closer, we see that this proposed district has conservative voting patterns, even taking McCain over Obama by 3 points. Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina carried this area handily.
Let’s rewind a couple of years, when the expectation was Cameron Smyth was going to run for George Runner’s soon-to-be-vacated Senate seat, leaving his own seat open. The rumors swirling about town had Scott Wilk and Paul Strickland both interested in succeeding Smyth. Instead, Smyth yielded to Sharon Runner and remained in his seat.
I’d assume both Wilk and Strickland (now Smyth’s deputy) are interested in this seat. Wilk’s heavy involvement in the redistricting process underscores this, and he’s owed favors all over town. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilk clear the field before the primary. He also has history in the San Fernando Valley, so he’s well-equiped to run there as well. I’m not sure where the Strickland talk comes from, and to be honest, I don’t see it, but the Mormon/McKeon connection moves a lot of votes, for what it’s worth.
There are a couple of other locals who could make a play for this seat. If Laurie Ender has any interest in higher office, this would be her best play to make – though I suspect she’s not interested. This also seems like a natural place for David Gauny’s next move. He has a fairly strong name ID and he’s now the leader of the wingnut branch of the local GOP. That might not add up to much, but a friend of mine has speculated that he might have enough clout to finish second in the primary, setting up an all-GOP Gauny/Wilk general election.
On the Democratic side, no names spring to mind and a Democrat would have a hard time running here, but a serious Dem candidate would probably find more volunteer and party support/money than candidates in the current district found. Since there will be no incumbents in this race, expect the Dems to give it their best in 2012, since it will be their best shot for a long time if a Republicans wins strongly.
The State Senate
The proposed Senate seat, pairing a coastal Democratic-leaning Assembly district with ours, would be more favorable to Democrats than either of the seats above are favorable to Republicans. It’s also the home of incumbent Senator Fran Pavley, who is up for reelection next year. Pavley’s reelection seems certain, as does Cameron Smyth’s exit from Sacramento. The open question is whether this district remains intact. Following the release of the working maps two weeks ago, many have speculated that this district would change radically. With the release of the first draft, it has changed little.
In the past, Senate districts were drawn independently, but under the new law they aren’t drawn at all, but rather a combination of two adjacent Assembly seats. State Senate districts comprise nearly 1,000,000 residents apiece, so it’s not unusual for disparate communities to be linked. We’ll see how this shakes out, but any change in pairing would change things for the SCV so much, we’ll save that discussion for when (and if) it happens.
If this holds, it would mark the first time the majority of the SCV was covered by a Democrat-held district at any level since Mike Antonovich unseated Baxter Ward in 1980.
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