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April 9, 2012· scvtalk.com · WordPress (SCVTalk 3.0) · Wayback capture

Calling our shots

By Mike — Mike Devlin

I probably shouldn’t do this. Two years ago, I predicted a Boydston upset, worse still, I may have had him outpolling Marsha McLean or Laurne Weste instead of Frank Ferry.

But I can’t resist. Here is my dispassionate prediction of the results for tomorrow’s election, (I promise that these were made earlier today before IHeart posted a scientifically-based prediction that bears some resemblance).

15,500 voters, casting 27,000 votes.
Ender: 9,000
Kellar: 8,000
Boydston: 6,500
Hatami: 2,000
Colley: 1,500

I encourage everyone to predict away. Maybe we can pitch in for a prize for whomever comes closest.

Comments (23)

  1. Alan FerdmanApril 9, 2012 at 7:00 pm
    Mike I also read Iheart’s assertion which was based on “If you had just made the null prediction (no change in trends in CC elections since 1990), this is what you’d predict for the election tomorrow”. Now if this was always true, we would not have to have elections, we could just let the statisticians decide who our elected officials are going to be. My assertion is this year will be different because of the issues which have surfaced primarily within the last two years. So why not give it a rest. What we should be telling everyone is TOMORROW IS ELECTION DAY. PLEASE BE SURE TO VOTE. And guess what, after the polls close, we will know who won. My bet is on Kellar and Boydston.
  2. IHeartSCVApril 9, 2012 at 7:46 pm
    I totally agree, Alan. I’m not a fatalist about this stuff at all–I just think the numbers show what you can expect if you run a totally average campaign, but if you run an extraordinary campaign, then results, too, may be extraordinary. Take Ferry in 1998, who based on the stats model “should have” earned 12% of the vote but instead earned a whopping 48% of the vote after his intense efforts. Or take David Gauny, who “should have” earned 15% of the vote but instead earned 43% after his big effort. Again, it’s just a null model.
  3. Alan FerdmanApril 9, 2012 at 7:56 pm
    Thanks IHeart. I understood your analysis and very much appreciate your additional effort to ensure there is no confusion about what it intended to show.
  4. LarMccApril 9, 2012 at 10:55 pm
    Alan…. I agree with your prediction 100%. Perhaps I am biased or naive, but I predict an Ender upset, though it will be close. Boydston has continued to gather support over the years and he has worked even harder this year, even getting an endorsement from The Signal (well, about as close as a non-incumbent can get). Ender got sloppy, distracted, over confident, low on cash or some combination of all these. Something happened here because she appeared to start campaigning only recently. Perhaps she was counting on the glossy magazine covers and favorable Signal/KHTS press to boost her image, perhaps the Mayor title or perhaps she was hoping Colley would have a bigger affect against Kellar. She no longer has the PTA support base that originally propelled her to victory. Topping it all off, she got a scathing ‘endorsement’ from The Signal which was preceded by coverage of her shoving her foot in her mouth over Jake’s Way. I do recognize the power of the incumbency. It is hard, but not impossible to beat and the conditions appear ripe for this. It will be over shortly, and I will be glad it is over so we can move on to something else.
  5. mikeApril 10, 2012 at 8:49 am
    I have a very hard time predicting elections, apart from the more obvious results, in Santa Clarita. My refrain is that I understand SCV politics really well, but I don’t get SCV elections. In other words, there are things a candidate can do to improve or hurt their chances, but I don’t have a good intuitive sense of where their starting place is. For example, last election, I thought TBB would pull an upset. For one, he’s great on the stump and he seemed to be personally out there more than anyone else. He was also raising money at a steady clip from a very wide and deep group of people. It really stunned me that he finished so poorly. But I know that now, so I assume that for whatever reason, his starting point is several yards behind the incumbents. As for Bob Kellar, it would seem like he has the best of both worlds: the reflexive incumbent vote and the hyper involved/malcontent vote. He’s famous (and infamous). But again, for whatever reason, he’s never been a strong finisher on election day. In 2004, in a three-man race, he managed to get 1,400 fewer votes than Cameron Smyth. In 2008, he finished second to Laurie Ender, who wasn’t even an incumbent. Add to that, his campaign, however well funded, does not show signs of sophistication. He’s spent more than twice as much money on advertising in The Signal than he has on mailers (where the smart money is spent). The anecdotal reports here have people getting several mailers from Ender and one, if that, from Kellar. Bob spent thousands on his website, thousands on signs (I’ve seen only one), thousands on a campaign manager and at least $8,000 to The Signal. And for what it’s worth, his campaign filings are sloppy, incomplete and loaded with errors. In a lot of ways, I think we get to the core of issues and elections in the SCV, but keep in mind that it’s the core, and not the heart. It’s small and it’s hot and it doesn’t resemble the rest of the body. It doesn’t share its DNA. The people especially involved and interested in local politics here don’t just have a more intense interest, but a different set of interests altogether. There’s a certain brilliance in EnderMath. Laurie Ender plays to the interests and concerns of the 98% of the voters that never take to the podium as well as, or better, than anyone else. That’s why she’ll win.
  6. LarMccApril 10, 2012 at 9:16 am
    Well, when you put it *that* way. Yeah, it’s an uphill battle. But I am forever the optimist when I believe in something. I’d like to think that bad vibes emanating from City Hall over the past two years woke some people up, and I am sure it did. But did it wake up 10 people or 1,000? Time will tell.
  7. IHeartSCVApril 10, 2012 at 9:21 am
    Really well said.
  8. MikeApril 9, 2012 at 10:57 pm
    Give what a rest? This is my first post on the topic. Still, it’s more interesting than patronizing to our readers, who are perfectly capable of remembering to vote tomorrow.
  9. BertaApril 9, 2012 at 7:33 pm
    “15,500 voters, casting 27,000 votes.” So are some folks illegally voting twice, non-eligible folks voting, or something else going on in your prediction?
  10. IHeartSCVApril 9, 2012 at 7:40 pm
    Pretty sure he means the number of candidates they’ll vote for (if everyone voted for 2 there’d be 31,000 votes, he’s saying a small percentage will just vote for one).
  11. Timothy C Myers SRApril 9, 2012 at 7:51 pm
    Yeah Berta you get to vote twice on your ballot.
  12. BertaApril 9, 2012 at 8:05 pm
    Tim I get that but the numbers were not adding up. IHeart’s comment about some voters’ bullet voting instead explains the numbers discrepancy.
  13. MikeApril 9, 2012 at 11:07 pm
    It involves the New Black Panther Party.
  14. NateApril 10, 2012 at 8:12 am
    HAHA
  15. SCV Republican SupporterApril 9, 2012 at 8:30 pm
    I think Mike’s figures are too optimistic for the incumbents. Boydston will not be 1500 votes behind in 3rd place. More like 500 votes or even closer. Hatami will be within 1500 votes of Boydston due to his public safety support. Colley will be dead last.
  16. Angelo CandelabraApril 9, 2012 at 8:42 pm
    16,000 voters casting 25,000 votes. Mayor Laurie Ender: 8,000 Councilman Bob Kellar: 6,250 Former Interim Councilman Timben Boydston: 5,500 Deputy District Attorney Jon Hatami: 3,000 CLWA Director Ed Colley: 2,250 For all of the money he has raised, Mr. Kellar has run a disappointingly poor campaign. Who advised him to waste limited resources on ads in the Signal and on website banner ads rather than on several waves of direct mail targeted at frequent voters? Had Mr. Boydston not engaged in the unusual tactic of promoting Mr. Kellar so extensively, Mr. Boydston could have overtaken Mr. Kellar. Ms. Ender has run a shrewd campaign by skillfully targeting likely absentee voters with well designed direct mail. I’ve been impressed with the timing of her mailings. Her campaign smartly sent likely absentee voters several mailings shortly after they received ballots and smartly sent likely election day voters several mailings shortly before election day. The execution of her campaign gameplan has been deft. Regarding Mr.Hatami, I believe his share of the vote has a “floor” based on the strong occupation designation of “Deputy District Attorney.” I am at a loss of words to explain the candidacy and campaign of Mr. Colley.
  17. LarMccApril 9, 2012 at 10:37 pm
    “I am at a loss of words to explain the candidacy and campaign of Mr. Colley.” Uhhh, Colley was the only part of Ender’s campaign that got an early start. I just wonder if they will attempt to keep up the illusion or if Colley will join Ender and Frank and all watch the election results together. It costs almost nothing to launch a website. Ender scrambled to get this off the ground less than a month ago. This is not strategy, this is poor planning, a lack of funds, or both. While I doubt the effectiveness of signs, same logic here. Why wait until two weeks before an election to get them in place. You can make an argument that the timing of her 3 mailers on the same day was strategic, deft or shrewd. But these other items paint a different picture.
  18. mikeApril 10, 2012 at 8:03 am
    The only person putting up actual numbers. AC never disappoints. I’m also stumped by Colley. Why did he put up so much of his own money? Why didn’t he take a dime from anyone? If it’s just a stunt, why was it such a bore?
  19. LarMccApril 10, 2012 at 9:34 am
    From all appearances, Colley is a man of modest means. I have a hard time believing that this was done without knowing he would be paid back, at least in some way. The fact that Frank Ferry endorsed him says it all. Colley’s goal was to tear down Kellar enough that it ensured an Ender victory. He never wanted nor expected to win.
  20. MikeApril 10, 2012 at 9:48 am
    Frank Ferry was Ed’s last friend, and Ed is, in many ways, Frank’s last friend. The tie between the two of them is far more significant than the Ferry/Ender tie. He might be settling old scores (for instance, Kellar backed Korenthal against Ed and Mike Cruz against Colley’s wife). I don’t think ensuring an Ender victory matters as much. He did say in an interview that he has some money to play with, and that he was going to use that money on the election. I saw his Form 700 filings and while not wealthy, he has a lot of investments and seems somewhat comfortable. All that said, if it was a purely disruptive campaign, why didn’t he disrupt a little more? Where are the dirty tricks? He went and gently burned every bridge, but with one possible exception, they never burned so bright that anyone noticed.
  21. Angelo CandelabraApril 9, 2012 at 8:46 pm
    SCV Republican Supporter, my comment was in the works when you posted your comment. I did not mimic your thinking, but I do agree with it.
  22. BrianBApril 9, 2012 at 9:36 pm
    I am surprised everyone is putting Ender in first place. If an incumbent is going to lose, it’s her. I think Kellar will get the most votes. Followed by an upset for second place.
  23. NateApril 10, 2012 at 8:17 am
    More likely than any of that is you vanishing into thin air by this time tomorrow morning.

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