Some Numerical Election Tidbits. (Much) More to Come!

By Timothy Myers SR. — Tim Myers

The City Clerk’s office has posted the final aggregate results for the 2012 City Council election and these results should put to rest any feeling by Ender partisans that a desultory or inadequate campaign resulted in her thumping loss at the hands of TimBen Boydston (“TBB”). It should be clear to anyone that rational ignorance has been significantly wrung from the system and that Ms. Ender paid the price for hubris at the polls, primarily for her role in the hospital expansion approval and the library takeover, with a sprinkling of “Ender Math” on for good measure.

Why is this more than speculation? It is because EVERYTHING about the 2012 election lined up with either the 2008 election (the last two seat race) or trends seen over the last several elections EXCEPT for the outcome. This can only mean a significant shift in the feelings of the thin cadre of participating voters and how they felt about this particular incumbent who, as a group, they helped bring to office in 2008.

What exactly was similar to 2008 or to trend?

Turnout was slightly less (16.9% vs. 17.3%) in 2012 vs. 2008, so a groundswell of new voters did not sweep TBB into office;
The trend in increased mix of vote by mails (“VBM’s”) continued to 75% in 2012 vs. 70% in 2008 (A slight hiccup in 2010 when the percentage of VBM’s decreased momentarily to 67%) so a sudden shift to poll voting did not sweep TBB into office; and
Implications of “bullet voting” about the same (1.78 votes per ballot in 2012 vs. 1.77 votes per ballot in 2008) so a big increase in bullet votes did not sweep TBB into office.

So what occurred differently in 2012 when compared to 2008?

TBB, while losing to the incumbents in the VBM’s, hung in there only needing to overcome a 202 vote deficit going into the poll votes where in the past challengers found themselves facing an impossible to overcome 800 to 1,000 vote deficit; and
TBB (and Bob Kellar) absolutely SMOKED everyone else in the poll votes. Once we receive the precinct distributions from the City Clerk I am sure we will find that just under 1 in 3 ballots cast on election day contained a vote for TBB while only 1 in 6 carried a vote for Laurie Ender. This meek performance at the polls would doom Laurie Ender.

So for the first time in a long time every vote did “matter.” TBB needed to reduce the incumbent’s generally overwhelming support in the VBM’s (he did) and then clean it up on election day (he did).

May he have the honor of heaving the first paper weight! He has earned it.

Comments (24)

IHeartSCVApril 19, 2012 at 3:18 pm

I agree that all patterns held except the obvious TBB victory over Laurie Ender. Her finish is the only result that deviated statistically significantly from what would have been expected assuming no change in trends. The null predictions posted before the election, and actual result (vote share is percent of ballots voting for candidate): *Total Votes: 14,626 +/- 1,707 null//15,390 actual (in-bounds) *Vote-by-mail: 11,046 +/- 1,179 null//11,607 actual (in-bounds) *Voter turnout: 16.1% +/- 1.8% null//16.9% actual (in-bounds) *Bob Kellar: 48% +/- 9% null//49% actual (in-bounds) *TimBen Boydston: 41% +/- 14% null//40% actual (in-bounds) *Ed Colley: 24% +/- 8% null//29% actual (in-bounds) *Jon Hatami: 24% +/- 8% null//25% actual (in-bounds) *****Laurie Ender: 54% +/- 9% null//35% actual (out-of-bounds)

Timothy Myers SRApril 19, 2012 at 3:43 pm

IHeart: So based on Aachen’s Razor the reason for Ender’s out of trend loss would be upset from the voters on her performance.

Eric HeilbrunApril 19, 2012 at 6:20 pm

So for the first time in a long time every vote did “matter.”….Wasn’t it just 2 years ago that one of the incumbent’s won by only 32 votes….kind of hard to say that “for the first time in a long time”…

Timothy C Myers SRApril 19, 2012 at 8:29 pm

Eric: The poll votes did not matter in 2010. Just because they made it close does not mean that David Gauny gets to split the council term with Frank Ferry. That is how elections work. Winner take all!

AlpinerApril 19, 2012 at 10:26 pm

Over-simplified.

Eric HeilbrunApril 20, 2012 at 11:15 am

Your losing me here…(admittedly not hard to do), but who said anything about splitting a council term? When there are only 32 votes separating two candidates, I do not see how anyone can say that the votes at the polls were irrelevant. You have an obvious acumen for statistical analysis, but the old saying about not “seeing the forest for the trees” comes to mind.

Timothy Myers SRApril 20, 2012 at 1:04 pm

Eric: The point is when you lose (or win) you lose (or win). It doesn’t matter whether you lost by a lot or lost by a little. Ask Al Gore!

Eric HeilbrunApril 20, 2012 at 2:49 pm

Tim…I don’t believe anyone is questioning the absolute nature of winning or losing. But you indicated that in this last election, every vote mattered for the “first time in a long time”. I’m saying that with only a 32 vote margin in 2010, every vote mattered then. I re-read what I wrote and can’t comprehend how you thought I said anything about Gauny sharing a term with Ferry, or that winning or losing isn’t absolute.

Eric HeilbrunApril 21, 2012 at 6:38 am

From your column today, “I, right now, would project an 80 percent likelihood that Ferry does not seek re-election for a fifth term in 2014,…”. What does that mean? If you run you run, if you don’t, you don’t. How does one project the percentage “likelihood” of Ferry running, or not? It’s OK to leave the numbers alone and just speak from the heart…It’s your gut feeling that Ferry’s political career on the council is nearing the end, right?

Capt. GeneApril 21, 2012 at 9:15 am

Two can play this game: I, right now, would project a 100 percent likelihood that Myers does not man up and explain or apologize for for his Acosta comment, not now, not ever.

TroyApril 19, 2012 at 10:40 pm

I’m with Eric. I want to be excited that the great Tim Myers has found (without admitting fault) that every vote counts. But he was wrong about the “indestructible” power of incumbency and his math is nothing but blind statistics that ignore political trends, the power of human resources or even basic human behaviors. All of these forces can and do…… and did….. change. Tim: your big “desultory” words confuse us with blather but the reality is that you continue in your error. Masses can and always will be influenced over periods of time. The “rational ignorance” that you claim has been “wrung out” from our voting public began when people saw community members actually stand against machine politics in this town many years ago. When 38 votes separated incumbents and challengers in 2010, people were even more compelled to act. You called out for more “rational ignorance” then, why do you condemn it now? Maybe human behavior is comparable to a dam. Once the first drop of water leaks through, the constrained body that remains leverages every micron of that newfound tunnel to punch through. If this can be explained with simple physics, certainly politics and freewill demand more than your self-important and deeply flawed “Nebraska Math.” We realize that you must awkwardly climb from your hole and attempt to realign with the voices of change you’ve mocked over the years but please consider acknowledging your own failures and expanding the range of your contribution to this blog and our community.

TimBen BoydstonApril 19, 2012 at 8:09 pm

Mr. Myers, Thank you for your coverage of the campaign for SCV Talk. There will be no throwing of paper weights, but there will be change starting on Tuesday. Thanks to everyone who made that possible.

Timothy C Myers SRApril 19, 2012 at 8:30 pm

Well TBB, I am talking about proverbial paperweights, and then real ones who people do not take heed!!!!

AdamApril 19, 2012 at 10:51 pm

In Tim’s defense, it seems to me he has admitted he was wrong and has acknowledged the changes taking place in politics. And its not like I’m trying to defend him as someone of similair beliefs either, I’d say we are on opposite ends of the political spectrum. But give the guy a break, he was wrong, admitted it, and now analyzing the numbers to try and see why. The numbers matter too. It’s not just the human part of politics and elections that matters but the numbers too. Math is the language of the universe. I for one enjoy the mathmatical breakdowns.

Capt. GeneApril 20, 2012 at 6:01 am

When it comes to making a bad call on which way fickle voters are going to vote I can give a guy a pass whether he admits he was wrong or not. However, when a guy insinuates that there is something unseemly about a man attending a memorial for his fallen soldier son and then refuses to either apologize for or explain his stupid comment, well, that behavior deserves nothing but scorn. Obviously Tim Myers sr. has a real issue with being wrong.

AdamApril 20, 2012 at 6:39 am

I do agree with that. I don’t think he ever explained that comment and I found it extremely disturbing. But I just don’t understand everyone’s desire to bash him for making, what was at the time, a very logical assumption/prediction about the election. I mean I voted BK/TBB on election day, but I’ll be completely honest here… I wasn’t confident TBB would pull it off until I saw the first results from the precincts that’s night. Why? Because incumbency is a huge benefit most of the time. So Tims predictions made a lot of sense.

Capt. GeneApril 20, 2012 at 7:06 am

I agree; a bad call on an election is one thing, questioning a father attending a memorial for his son is something else. You know, The surnames “Myers” and “McKeon” have very similar origins, vastly different origins than the name “Acosta”. In spite of all the questionable ethics McKeon has displayed Myers supports him: http://www.the-signal.com/section/33/article/58984/ . I guess Tim prefers the republicans that speak his language.

Phil EllisApril 20, 2012 at 8:46 am

If you accept that the Irish Celts came from Spain, then all those surnames may have similar origins.

BertaApril 20, 2012 at 9:44 am

Both the Celts and the Gaels who inhabit Ireland, England, Scotland, and Wales came from the north of Spain specifically in the provinces of what is now Asturias (my paternal family), Cantabria, and Galicia. Galicia even gave its name to the Gaelic language spoken predominately in Ireland, Scotland, Wales, and some English areas such as Cornwall and the Manxmen from the Isle of Man. Asturias gave Scotland the clan system and their music via bagpipe instruments. See, we are all really related after all.

Cheryl PhillipsApril 21, 2012 at 9:39 am

Bet you weren’t expecting that, Phil. Love it, Berta – thanks for the history lesson.

TroyApril 20, 2012 at 7:47 am

I agree with Capt Gene. Destructive swipes at Acosta or anyone else are far from unbiased number crunching through election time. Remember how Gauny was the bad because mortgage broker who was tied to global decline and Hatami was like Gauny but with an “actual education”? Then there was Boydston who lost Myers support because his team was so offensive and vitriolic towards Laurie. She went on to “earn” Tim’s vote (really just mindless support) along with McKeon who will “always” have Tim’s vote. Along with all of this we get an overdose of biased B.S. to support those calls and math that tells everyone to quit trying. Man up Tim. Either take responsibility for the negative impacts you create or step away from the microphone. How embarrassing that your don’t have the balls to apologize for the Acosta comment.

AlpinerApril 20, 2012 at 4:44 pm

Amen!

TroyApril 20, 2012 at 7:36 am

Yes, I think he said he was “converted” without ever taking responsibility for doing everything in his power squash change. Myers likes to call this a fun “puzzle” to figure out but hes the only person I know who insits that he knows the solution at the beginning and then tries to force that answer throughout the process. Give me a break.

BertaApril 21, 2012 at 1:08 pm

Thanks Cheryl. History and geography have always been my special interests. I am always eager to learn and very much appreciate when others share their knowledge with me, which has afforded me the opportunity to broaden my horizons. In turn, I try to share wherever possible.

IHeartSCVApril 19, 2012 at 3:18 pm
I agree that all patterns held except the obvious TBB victory over Laurie Ender. Her finish is the only result that deviated statistically significantly from what would have been expected assuming no change in trends. The null predictions posted before the election, and actual result (vote share is percent of ballots voting for candidate): *Total Votes: 14,626 +/- 1,707 null//15,390 actual (in-bounds) *Vote-by-mail: 11,046 +/- 1,179 null//11,607 actual (in-bounds) *Voter turnout: 16.1% +/- 1.8% null//16.9% actual (in-bounds) *Bob Kellar: 48% +/- 9% null//49% actual (in-bounds) *TimBen Boydston: 41% +/- 14% null//40% actual (in-bounds) *Ed Colley: 24% +/- 8% null//29% actual (in-bounds) *Jon Hatami: 24% +/- 8% null//25% actual (in-bounds) *****Laurie Ender: 54% +/- 9% null//35% actual (out-of-bounds)
Timothy Myers SRApril 19, 2012 at 3:43 pm
IHeart: So based on Aachen’s Razor the reason for Ender’s out of trend loss would be upset from the voters on her performance.
Eric HeilbrunApril 19, 2012 at 6:20 pm
So for the first time in a long time every vote did “matter.”….Wasn’t it just 2 years ago that one of the incumbent’s won by only 32 votes….kind of hard to say that “for the first time in a long time”…
Timothy C Myers SRApril 19, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Eric: The poll votes did not matter in 2010. Just because they made it close does not mean that David Gauny gets to split the council term with Frank Ferry. That is how elections work. Winner take all!
AlpinerApril 19, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Over-simplified.
Eric HeilbrunApril 20, 2012 at 11:15 am
Your losing me here…(admittedly not hard to do), but who said anything about splitting a council term? When there are only 32 votes separating two candidates, I do not see how anyone can say that the votes at the polls were irrelevant. You have an obvious acumen for statistical analysis, but the old saying about not “seeing the forest for the trees” comes to mind.
Timothy Myers SRApril 20, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Eric: The point is when you lose (or win) you lose (or win). It doesn’t matter whether you lost by a lot or lost by a little. Ask Al Gore!
Eric HeilbrunApril 20, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Tim…I don’t believe anyone is questioning the absolute nature of winning or losing. But you indicated that in this last election, every vote mattered for the “first time in a long time”. I’m saying that with only a 32 vote margin in 2010, every vote mattered then. I re-read what I wrote and can’t comprehend how you thought I said anything about Gauny sharing a term with Ferry, or that winning or losing isn’t absolute.
Eric HeilbrunApril 21, 2012 at 6:38 am
From your column today, “I, right now, would project an 80 percent likelihood that Ferry does not seek re-election for a fifth term in 2014,…”. What does that mean? If you run you run, if you don’t, you don’t. How does one project the percentage “likelihood” of Ferry running, or not? It’s OK to leave the numbers alone and just speak from the heart…It’s your gut feeling that Ferry’s political career on the council is nearing the end, right?
Capt. GeneApril 21, 2012 at 9:15 am
Two can play this game: I, right now, would project a 100 percent likelihood that Myers does not man up and explain or apologize for for his Acosta comment, not now, not ever.
TroyApril 19, 2012 at 10:40 pm
I’m with Eric. I want to be excited that the great Tim Myers has found (without admitting fault) that every vote counts. But he was wrong about the “indestructible” power of incumbency and his math is nothing but blind statistics that ignore political trends, the power of human resources or even basic human behaviors. All of these forces can and do…… and did….. change. Tim: your big “desultory” words confuse us with blather but the reality is that you continue in your error. Masses can and always will be influenced over periods of time. The “rational ignorance” that you claim has been “wrung out” from our voting public began when people saw community members actually stand against machine politics in this town many years ago. When 38 votes separated incumbents and challengers in 2010, people were even more compelled to act. You called out for more “rational ignorance” then, why do you condemn it now? Maybe human behavior is comparable to a dam. Once the first drop of water leaks through, the constrained body that remains leverages every micron of that newfound tunnel to punch through. If this can be explained with simple physics, certainly politics and freewill demand more than your self-important and deeply flawed “Nebraska Math.” We realize that you must awkwardly climb from your hole and attempt to realign with the voices of change you’ve mocked over the years but please consider acknowledging your own failures and expanding the range of your contribution to this blog and our community.
TimBen BoydstonApril 19, 2012 at 8:09 pm
Mr. Myers, Thank you for your coverage of the campaign for SCV Talk. There will be no throwing of paper weights, but there will be change starting on Tuesday. Thanks to everyone who made that possible.
Timothy C Myers SRApril 19, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Well TBB, I am talking about proverbial paperweights, and then real ones who people do not take heed!!!!
AdamApril 19, 2012 at 10:51 pm
In Tim’s defense, it seems to me he has admitted he was wrong and has acknowledged the changes taking place in politics. And its not like I’m trying to defend him as someone of similair beliefs either, I’d say we are on opposite ends of the political spectrum. But give the guy a break, he was wrong, admitted it, and now analyzing the numbers to try and see why. The numbers matter too. It’s not just the human part of politics and elections that matters but the numbers too. Math is the language of the universe. I for one enjoy the mathmatical breakdowns.
Capt. GeneApril 20, 2012 at 6:01 am
When it comes to making a bad call on which way fickle voters are going to vote I can give a guy a pass whether he admits he was wrong or not. However, when a guy insinuates that there is something unseemly about a man attending a memorial for his fallen soldier son and then refuses to either apologize for or explain his stupid comment, well, that behavior deserves nothing but scorn. Obviously Tim Myers sr. has a real issue with being wrong.
AdamApril 20, 2012 at 6:39 am
I do agree with that. I don’t think he ever explained that comment and I found it extremely disturbing. But I just don’t understand everyone’s desire to bash him for making, what was at the time, a very logical assumption/prediction about the election. I mean I voted BK/TBB on election day, but I’ll be completely honest here… I wasn’t confident TBB would pull it off until I saw the first results from the precincts that’s night. Why? Because incumbency is a huge benefit most of the time. So Tims predictions made a lot of sense.
Capt. GeneApril 20, 2012 at 7:06 am
I agree; a bad call on an election is one thing, questioning a father attending a memorial for his son is something else. You know, The surnames “Myers” and “McKeon” have very similar origins, vastly different origins than the name “Acosta”. In spite of all the questionable ethics McKeon has displayed Myers supports him: http://www.the-signal.com/section/33/article/58984/ . I guess Tim prefers the republicans that speak his language.
Phil EllisApril 20, 2012 at 8:46 am
If you accept that the Irish Celts came from Spain, then all those surnames may have similar origins.
BertaApril 20, 2012 at 9:44 am
Both the Celts and the Gaels who inhabit Ireland, England, Scotland, and Wales came from the north of Spain specifically in the provinces of what is now Asturias (my paternal family), Cantabria, and Galicia. Galicia even gave its name to the Gaelic language spoken predominately in Ireland, Scotland, Wales, and some English areas such as Cornwall and the Manxmen from the Isle of Man. Asturias gave Scotland the clan system and their music via bagpipe instruments. See, we are all really related after all.
Cheryl PhillipsApril 21, 2012 at 9:39 am
Bet you weren’t expecting that, Phil. Love it, Berta – thanks for the history lesson.
TroyApril 20, 2012 at 7:47 am
I agree with Capt Gene. Destructive swipes at Acosta or anyone else are far from unbiased number crunching through election time. Remember how Gauny was the bad because mortgage broker who was tied to global decline and Hatami was like Gauny but with an “actual education”? Then there was Boydston who lost Myers support because his team was so offensive and vitriolic towards Laurie. She went on to “earn” Tim’s vote (really just mindless support) along with McKeon who will “always” have Tim’s vote. Along with all of this we get an overdose of biased B.S. to support those calls and math that tells everyone to quit trying. Man up Tim. Either take responsibility for the negative impacts you create or step away from the microphone. How embarrassing that your don’t have the balls to apologize for the Acosta comment.
AlpinerApril 20, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Amen!
TroyApril 20, 2012 at 7:36 am
Yes, I think he said he was “converted” without ever taking responsibility for doing everything in his power squash change. Myers likes to call this a fun “puzzle” to figure out but hes the only person I know who insits that he knows the solution at the beginning and then tries to force that answer throughout the process. Give me a break.
BertaApril 21, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Thanks Cheryl. History and geography have always been my special interests. I am always eager to learn and very much appreciate when others share their knowledge with me, which has afforded me the opportunity to broaden my horizons. In turn, I try to share wherever possible.