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One: The master chart
This was how the election went down. Nothing new here, just setting the table. Not pie-worthy.
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Two: Breakdown by city
Did I say pies? I meant donuts. How about both? Anyway, this is my favorite of the bunch. My only regret is I don't have time to sift through all the precincts to give you different results for each unincorporated community. This election, LA County just gives us one number for unincorporated areas. I also grouped Palmdale and Lancaster together because (a) I don't know the difference between the two, and (b) Lancaster is only partially in the 25th, so it just worked out better this way. Bear in mind that Los Angeles (a chunk of Porter Ranch) only makes up about 3% of the district.
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Three: The balance of power
To the extent this election will be about persuasion, Santa Clarita Valley will be its main battleground. We hold the largest share of the electorate and as you've seen above, we aren't as committed to either candidate as each of their home valleys are. We're also less red than Simi and less blue than the AV. Quick notes: without the numbers on each unincorporated community, I estimated each area's share based on the 2012 election. "Mountain" means communities of ambiguous classification, like Gorman, Acton and Agua Dulce.
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Four: Red vs. Blue
Votes for Republicans (Strickland, Knight, Castagna and Singh) versus votes for Democrats (Rogers, Thomas) in this election.
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Five: Seasons change, voters change
Throughout California, voters lean much more Republican in primary elections. Just look at Lee Rogers' performance in the 2012 General Election, versus the combined totals of both Democrats in this Primary – and don't forget that Democrats have gained several points on Republicans in voter registration since then. (Sorry, not a pie)
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Six: Is November up for grabs? More than you imagined.
This is fun and speculative, but let's assume for a moment that turnout will double in November over June (a safe estimate) and let's make another safe estimate that Democratic-leaning turnout will go up 10 points over June. Here's a look at who has already voted for Strickland and Knight and just how much of the November electorate hasn't yet voted for either, and where they lean. You'll see that neither can win with Republican leaners alone.
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Thanks for reading. If you missed our last chart series on the 25th Congressional District, you can catch that here.
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