Scott Wilk Calls Out Buck McKeon Over Possible Strickland Scheme

If you follow local politics, it doesn't get more interesting than this. Scott Wilk, SCV's Republican Assemblyman has issued a very public challenge to his former boss, SCV's Republican Congressman, Buck McKeon. 

It's called Time to Place Party and Country over Personal Agenda and it isn't your usual primary season bickering. Unlike two years ago when McKeon's wife ran against Wilk, the stakes aren't immediately clear. Wilk isn't running for Congress in 2014, but that's not to say there isn't some unfinished business with McKeon or with Tony Strickland, whom Wilk describes as "consumed with personal political ambition."

Here Wilk airs out the long-simmering rumor that Buck McKeon and Tony Strickland are setting up a scheme where McKeon makes a very late retirement announcement while Strickland raises money, ostensibly for the race in his current district (CA 26). McKeon would retire and Strickland enters this race (CA 25) with enough money to all but guarantee a primary victory. This would leave the more obvious successors like Cameron Smyth and Steve Knight out in the cold. McKeon wants an ally to succeed him, and Tony Strickland wants a better chance at winning (Strickland is raising a lot of money, but incumbent Julia Brownley is raising a lot more).

Wilk points out that if this scheme is carried out, the delay might lead to further woe to an already weak state GOP:

McKeon says he's running in 2014, but it doesn't look like it. He's already being outraised by Lee Rogers and polling poorly, which Wilk notes in his piece. Just two days ago, a newly formed political advocacy organization announced that McKeon is one of ten GOP members of congress that it's targeting with $1-2 million in each race. McKeon's family has already set up a defense lobbying firm and there's no apparent sign of a McKeon 2014 campaign locally.

It's a combination of Skywalker-meets-Vader and the scene in many a Lifetime movie where the family secrets are aired out for everyone to hear. It's in Flash Report, which is the leading blog covering CA for the GOP. Since he's responsible for finding and supporting candidates for the most competitive Assembly races in 2014, the state GOP is listening to Wilk. Say it loudly when everyone is listening. Let no one say he doesn't have a sense of timing.

Strickland, as the presumptive nominee for the very competitive 26th, can raise a lot of money from donors who are expecting a repeat of 2012.

McKeon can't offer much to Strickland. He raises most of his money because he chairs the House Armed Services Committee from donors who won't care about the freshman who replaces him. He no longer runs the political machine here or elsewhere. His list of allies in the district, once long enough to fill a large newspaper ad, is now very short. None of the obvious Republican successors (Wilk floats a raft of names, including Bob Kellar) are still in the McKeon camp. That leaves Tony Strickland, who lives outside of the district, but grew up in Simi Valley.

If McKeon doesn't have money or political clout to bestow on an heir, he's left with one important thing: the clock. By delaying his decision, he's keeping would-be Republican replacements away from the race, while allowing Strickland to keep raising money as a candidate for the 26th. If McKeon retires and Strickland enters the race, Strickland will have a lot more money than any potential Republican challenger, probably enough to overwhelm any upstart campaign – but probably not enough to matter in the general election, where the race will likely attract lots of outside money on both sides.

The paradox for Strickland and the Republicans is that they have a chance at winning the 26th and a chance of losing the 25th. Brownley is already raising a lot of money to defend her seat in the 26th, so her challenger will have to be well-funded and well-organized to have a chance, because it will be an uphill battle. Strickland might be their best hope to win the 26th because he's the presumptive nominee this late in the cycle, but Strickland's own best chance to win is in the 25th, where there are a lot more Republicans. But among the other possible contenders, Strickland might be have the worst chance in the General Election because he isn't widely known and isn't an especially good politician.